- March 12, 2019
6:00 pm - 8:00 pm
What are “stochastic” models and when do we need to use them? The great bulk of financial models are “deterministic”, that is to say, they require specific input variables and the model calculates a specified set of required output variables, without any allowance for potential uncertainty. Sometimes, however, the amount of uncertainty is critical to providing the user with a full understanding of the situation, and the modellers’ job is to quantify the uncertainty. In these situations, ideally, we need to design a stochastic model, one which attributes probabilities for the range of possible outcomes of some variables rather than a single figure. Our presenter, John De Ravin who will illustrate for us the use of some deterministic and some stochastic models and when each category might be appropriate, and will briefly discuss some ways of building probability into a model.
• About your Speaker
John De Ravin is a retired actuary who spent about three decades of his working life as an Appointed Actuary with responsibility for valuation of insurance policy liabilities. Since retiring he has written a book about personal financial planning, and he is currently the Convenor of a Working Group of the Actuaries Institute which aims to offer guidance to retirees on how much they should spend each year from a given level of financial assets. Apart from his actuarial and accounting qualifications he holds Bachelor’s degrees in Science and Economics from ANU and an MBA from Macquarie University. Connect with John here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnderavin/
• About your Host
Danielle Stein Fairhurst is a financial modelling specialist and the author of three books on financial modelling. Danielle has regular engagements around Australia and globally as a speaker, course facilitator, financial modelling consultant and analyst, was a guest on Excel TV and has been interviewed for several industry podcasts. Connect with Danielle here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniellesteinfairhurst/
• What to bring
A laptop is not required for this session
• Meetup Format
We start the sessions with around 30 minutes of networking, a 45 minute presentation followed by 15 minutes of questions and discussion and conclude by 7.30 or 8pm.
This is a networking group so be sure to find someone to chat to before the session begins. If you’re new and not sure what to say, just ask someone what their favourite Excel function is and you’ll fit right in!