When there’s little or no history to lean on, forecasting stops being a lookup exercise and becomes an argument about the future. In this virtual meetup, Melissa Whipp of Naked Finance shows how to build a simple Monte Carlo simulation in plain Excel, with no add-ins, no macros and no black box. Building from first principles, she starts with actual data history, works out how often each value occurs, then uses RAND() to draw from that pattern thousands of times. Instead of one single number, you end up with the shape of what could happen, and a P10, P50 and P90 (a realistic low, middle and high) you can take to the board. If you’re already using scenarios and sensitivities, this is the next step: not just what could happen, but how likely it is.
★ Download Melissa’s Monte Carlo workbook and guide from Naked Finance
★ Follow Melissa Whipp on LinkedIn
★ Follow Danielle Stein Fairhurst on LinkedIn
★ Register for another Virtual Meetup
