Beware False Accuracy
It’s better to be roughly right than exactly wrong
A financial model which forecasts into the future, by definition, contains a certain degree of uncertainty. We feed our best estimates based on the most accurate information we have at the time, into the assumptions of the model which in turn feeds our predictive forecasts. To then use those forecasts to made ridiculous statements about the future direction of the company with utter confidence and absolute precision is completely preposterous! Yet we see this happen all the time.
The output of a model is only as good as its inputs (garbage in and garbage out) and it’s reckless to use the outputs of the model without qualifying the inputs used to come up with those numbers. In the example below, it would make a lot (more…)
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